Castro Valley
A Granular Framework for Construction Material Price Forecasting: Econometric and Machine-Learning Approaches
Lyu, Boge, Yin, Qianye, Tommelein, Iris Denise, Liu, Hanyang, Ranka, Karnamohit, Yeluripati, Karthik, Shi, Junzhe
This study develops a forecasting framework t hat leverages the Construction Specifications Institute (CSI) MasterFormat as the target data structure, enabling predictions at the six - digit section level and supporting detailed cost projections across a wide spectrum of building materials. To enhance p redictive accuracy, the framework integrates explanatory variables such as raw material prices, commodity indexes, and macroeconomic indicators. Four time - series models, Long Short - Term Memory (LSTM), Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), Vecto r Error Correction Model (VECM), and Chronos - Bolt, were evaluated under both baseline configurations (using CSI data only) and extended versions with explanatory variables. Results demonstrate that incorporating explanatory variables significantly improves predictive performance across all models. Among the tested approaches, the LSTM model consistently ach ieved the highest accuracy, with RMSE values as low as 1.390 and MAPE values of 0.957, representing improvements of up to 59 % over traditional statistical time - series model, ARIMA. Validation across multiple CSI divisions confirmed the framework's scalability, while Division 06 (Wood, Plastics, and Composites) is presented in detail as a demonstration case. This research offers a robust methodology that enables owners and contractors to improve budgeting practices and achieve more reliable cost estimation at the Definitive level. INTRODUCTION 1.1 Motivation The construction industry continues to demonstrate steady long - term growth, with global activity projected to reach US$9.8 trillion by 2026 [1] . Major upcoming programs in the United States, such as the Los Angeles 2028 Olympics and TSMC's fabrication facility in Arizona [2] [3], highlight the scale of high - value projects in the near future. However, volatility in construction material prices has emerged as a critical challenge, creating significant uncertainty for contractors in project planning, budgeting, and cost management. Price fluctuations, driven by raw material costs, macroeconomic conditions such as inflation and interest rates, and supply - demand imbalances, have amplified risks of cost overruns and delays [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] . Traditional econometric methods (i.e.,multiple regression analysis) and modern econometric methods (i.e., univariate, and multivariate time series methods) have faced limitations in effectively capturing the high - frequency volatility observed in constructi on material prices [9] . These models often struggle to handle the complexity of input data and exhibit limited predictive accuracy in real - world applications.
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Protect your privacy: A guide to avoiding drone surveillance
The Texas Department of Public Safety say criminal organizations have increasingly turned to using drones to scout out areas for illegal immigration. I share a ton of tips to protect your privacy online. Do this quick 30-second check to keep your Google and Facebook accounts safe if you haven't yet. What about when you leave your home? Just about everywhere you go, you're being watched.
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Uncertain if Autopilot was engaged in man's fatal Tesla crash into San Francisco-area pond
CASTRO VALLEY, CALIFORNIA – A man was killed when the Tesla automobile he was driving veered off a road, crashed through a fence and plunged into a pond, authorities said Monday. California Highway Patrol spokesman Daniel Jacowitz said rescuers pulled the Tesla Model S from the pond early Monday and found the man's body inside. The driver was identified as Keith Leung, 34, of Danville, California, said Sgt. Ray Kelly, spokesman for the Alameda County Sheriff's office. Kelly said it was too soon to know if the vehicle's semi-autonomous Autopilot mode was engaged when the crash occurred or whether the driver may have been speeding or intoxicated. Photographs of the car show that its back-end was destroyed, its hood crumpled and windows shattered.
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Frog Fractions: inside the mind behind the world's strangest video game
When Jim Crawford released a browser game named Frog Fractions in 2012, half the people who played it called him a genius; the rest thought he was deranged. What most of them seemed to agree on however, was that they loved it. When influential site Rock Paper Shotgun covered the game, it did so under the header: "Frog Fractions might be the greatest game of all time". Unpredictable and absurd, Frog Fractions starts out under the guise of a piece of edutainment software in which you control a frog sat on a pond scooping up bugs and defending fruit. Then after buying a few upgrades, you're suddenly riding a dragon through an underground tunnel that takes you into Crawford's own bizarre version of video game wonderland.
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Gene editing can end disease and fight global famine
It's called this because each CRISPR unit is made of repeated DNA base-pair sequences that can be read the same way forward or in reverse and are separated by "spacer" pairs. Think of it like an organic Morse code palindrome. With CRISPR we can now edit any genetic code -- including our own. In the three years since its advent, researchers have used CRISPR to investigate everything from sickle-cell anemia and muscular dystrophy to cystic fibrosis and cataracts. One group has even used it to snip off the cellular receptors that HIV exploits in order to infect the human immune system.
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